Analyzing the Spatial Character of Regional Preferences for Growth: The Phoenix ULI Reality Check Exercise

The Urban Land Institute, in partnership with regional agencies, has been conducting regional planning workshops called Reality Check for various regions around the US including, Los Angeles CA, Dallas/Fort Worth TX, Tampa Bay FL, the state of Maryland, Washington DC, Charleston SC, and recently, Phoenix AZ. At these workshops, small groups (as many as 30) create visions of the regions future by spatially allocating 20 years of possible housing and employment growth on maps of the region.

The intent of the ULI exercises is to help community leaders envision the reality of growth in their regions. However, these exercises also have the potential to explore the high degree of uncertainty associated with the factors of regional growth and political will.

This presentation will provide an overview of the Phoenix AzOne Reality Check exercise, as well as an independent advanced scenario planning analysis using the results of the exercise. The talk will describe how this analysis is now being used by the AzOne Reality Check in its efforts to explore and understand the uncertainty of the region's future and the implications for land use decisions today.

Ray Quay is an Assistant Director of Water Services with the City of Phoenix responsible for water resource planning and growth issues. Previously he was Assistant Director of Planning for Phoenix, an Adjunct Faculty member at Arizona State University, and the director of the Greater Phoenix 2100 Project at ASU.

He is a Fellow of the American Institute of Certified Planners and has authored several books and articles related to urban planning, technology, and growth issues. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree from Baylor University, a Master of Science degree from University of Texas at Austin, and is a Ph.D. Candidate at ASU.